Real-time assessment of COVID-19 epidemic in Guangdong Province, China using mathematical models.

China government has relaxed the response measures of COVID-19 in early December 2022. In this report, we assessed the number of infections, the number of severe cases based on the current epidemic trend (October 22, 2022 to November 30, 2022) using a transmission dynamics model, called modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) to provide valuable information to ensure the medical operation of the healthcare system under the new situation. Our model showed that the present outbreak in Guangdong Province peaked during December 21, 2022 to December 25, 2022 with about 14.98 million new infections (95% CI: 14.23-15.73 million). The cumulative number of infections will reach about 70% of the province's population from December 24, 2022 to December 26, 2022. The number of existing severe cases is expected to peak during January 1, 2023 to January 5, 2023 with a peak number of approximately 101.45 thousand (95% CI: 96.38-106.52 thousand). In addition, the epidemic in Guangzhou which is the capital city of Guangdong Province is expected to have peaked around December 22, 2022 to December 23, 2022 with the number of new infections at the peak being about 2.45 million (95% CI: 2.33-2.57 million). The cumulative number of infected people will reach about 70% of the city's population from December 24, 2022 to December 25, 2022 and the number of existing severe cases is expected to peak around January 4, 2023 to January 6, 2023 with the number of existing severe cases at the peak being about 6.32 thousand (95% CI: 6.00-6.64 thousand). Predicted results enable the government to prepare medically and plan for potential risks in advance.

An ultra-sensitive one-pot RNA-templated DNA ligation rolling circle amplification-assisted CRISPR/Cas12a detector assay for rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2

Rapid, sensitive, and one-pot diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) plays an extremely important role in point-of-care testing (POCT). Herein, we report an ultra-sensitive and rapid one-pot enzyme-catalyzed rolling circle amplification-assisted CRISPR/FnCas12a assay, termed OPERATOR. OPERATOR employs a single well-designed single-strand padlock DNA, containing a protospacer adjacent motif (PAM) site and a sequence complementary to the target RNA which procedure converts and amplifies genomic RNA to DNA by RNA-templated DNA ligation and multiply-primed rolling circle amplification (MRCA). The MRCA amplicon of single-stranded DNA is cleaved by the FnCas12a/crRNA complex and detected via a fluorescence reader or lateral flow strip. OPERATOR presents outstanding advantages including ultra-sensitivity (1.625 copies per reaction), high specificity (100%), rapid reaction speed (∼30 min), easy operation, low cost, and on-spot visualization. Furthermore, we established a POCT platform by combining OPERATOR with rapid RNA release and a lateral flow strip without professional equipment. The high performance of OPERATOR in SARS-CoV-2 tests was confirmed using both reference materials and clinical samples, and the results suggest that is readily adaptable for point-of-care testing of other RNA viruses.

An ultra-sensitive one-pot RNA-templated DNA ligation rolling circle amplification-assisted CRISPR/Cas12a detector assay for rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2.

Rapid, sensitive, and one-pot diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) plays an extremely important role in point-of-care testing (POCT). Herein, we report an ultra-sensitive and rapid one-pot enzyme-catalyzed rolling circle amplification-assisted CRISPR/FnCas12a assay, termed OPERATOR. OPERATOR employs a single well-designed single-strand padlock DNA, containing a protospacer adjacent motif (PAM) site and a sequence complementary to the target RNA which procedure converts and amplifies genomic RNA to DNA by RNA-templated DNA ligation and multiply-primed rolling circle amplification (MRCA). The MRCA amplicon of single-stranded DNA is cleaved by the FnCas12a/crRNA complex and detected via a fluorescence reader or lateral flow strip. OPERATOR presents outstanding advantages including ultra-sensitivity (1.625 copies per reaction), high specificity (100%), rapid reaction speed (∼30 min), easy operation, low cost, and on-spot visualization. Furthermore, we established a POCT platform by combining OPERATOR with rapid RNA release and a lateral flow strip without professional equipment. The high performance of OPERATOR in SARS-CoV-2 tests was confirmed using both reference materials and clinical samples, and the results suggest that is readily adaptable for point-of-care testing of other RNA viruses.

Culturing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) for Diagnosis and Genome Sequencing.

OBJECTIVE: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) nucleic acid detection "re-positive" phenomenon is encountered clinically. The accuracy of a viral nucleic acid test is crucial to prevent reintroduction of the virus into the community. This study evaluated the effect of virus culturing on increasing the sensitivity and specificity of real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) detection and viral genomic sequencing. METHODS: A series of tenfold dilutions of a SARS-CoV-2 viral stock were conducted and cultured for either 24 or 48 hours. The viral load of cultured samples was determined by RT-PCR. The cultured and non-cultured samples of 1x 50% tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50) were sequenced using metagenomic next-generation sequencing. The depth and coverage of SARS-CoV-2 genome were measured. RESULTS: The lowest viral load detectable in a sample with RT-PCR was 0.01 TCID50. After a 24-h culture, the viral ORF 1ab and N-gene cycle threshold (CT) values were reduced by 4.4 points and 1 point, respectively. One TCID50 viral load of post 24-h culture revealed the sequence depth reached an average of 752 reads, compared with 0.15 in the nonculture; furthermore, the coverage was 99.99% while 6.42% in the nonculture. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that virus culturing can significantly increase the viral load, which can increase the certainty of true-positive detection of the viral nucleic acids, and improve the quality of virus genomic sequencing.

How fast and how well the Omicron epidemic was curtailed. A Guangzhou experience to share.

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 has ravaged the world and undergone multiple mutations during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. On 7 April 2022, an epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (BA.2) variant broke out in Guangzhou, China, one of the largest transportation and logistical hubs of the country. Methods: To fast curtained the Omicron epidemic, based on the routine surveillance on the risk population of SARS-CoV-2 infection, we identify key places of the epidemic and implement enhanced control measures against Omicron. Results: Transmission characteristics of the Omicron variant were analyzed for 273 confirmed cases, and key places involved in this epidemic were fully presented. The median incubation time and the generation time were 3 days, and the reproduction number Rt was sharply increased with a peak of 4.20 within 2 days. We tried an all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, and the proportion of confirmed cases increased from 61.17% at Stage 2 to 88.89% at Stage 4. Through delimited risk area management, 99 cases were found, and the cases were isolated in advance for 2.61 ± 2.76 days in a lockdown zone, 0.44 ± 1.08 days in a controlled zone, and 0.27 ± 0.62 days in a precautionary zone. People assigned with yellow code accounted for 30.32% (84/277) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, and 83.33% of them were detected positive over 3 days since code assignment. For the districts outside the epicenter, the implementation duration of NPIs was much shorter compared with the Delta epidemic last year. Conclusion: By blocking out transmission risks and adjusting measures to local epidemic conditions through the all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, by delimiting risk area management, and by conducting health code management of the at-risk population, the Omicron epidemic could be contained quickly.

Containment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta strain in Guangzhou, China by quarantine and social distancing: a modelling study.

China detected the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection with Delta variant in May 2021. We assessed control strategies against this variant of concern. We constructed a robust transmission model to assess the effectiveness of interventions against the Delta variant in Guangzhou with initial quarantine/isolation, followed by social distancing. We also assessed the effectiveness of alternative strategies and that against potentially more infectious variants. The effective reproduction number (Rt) fell below 1 when the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 7 and quarantine/isolation was implemented on average at the same day of symptom onset in Guangzhou. Simulations showed that the outbreak could still be contained when quarantine is implemented on average 1 day after symptom onset while the average daily number of close contacts was reduced to ≤ 9 per person one week after the outbreak's beginning. Early quarantine and reduction of close contacts were found to be important for containment of the outbreaks. Early implementation of quarantine/isolation along with social distancing measures could effectively suppress spread of the Delta and more infectious variants.

Crucial control measures to contain China's first Delta variant outbreak.

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant flared up in late May in Guangzhou, China. Transmission characteristics of Delta variant were analysed for 153 confirmed cases and two complete transmission chains with seven generations were fully presented. A rapid transmission occurred in five generations within 10 days. The basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.60 (95% confidence interval: 2.50-5.30). After redefining the concept of close contact, the proportion of confirmed cases discovered from close contacts increased from 43% to 100%. With the usage of a yellow health code, the potential exposed individuals were self-motivated to take a nucleic acid test and regained public access with a negative testing result. Facing the massive requirement of screening, novel facilities like makeshift inflatable laboratories were promptly set up as a vital supplement and 17 cases were found, with 1 pre-symptomatic. The dynamic adjustment of these three interventions resulted in the decline of Rt from 5.00 to 1.00 within 9 days. By breaking the transmission chain and eliminating the transmission source through extending the scope of the close-contact tracing, health-code usage and mass testing, the Guangzhou Delta epidemic was effectively contained.

Different Circulation Pattern of Multiple Respiratory Viruses in Southern China During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

China implemented stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in spring 2020, which has effectively suppressed SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we utilized data from routine respiratory virus testing requests from physicians and examined circulation of 11 other respiratory viruses in Southern China, from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020. A total of 58,169 throat swabs from patients with acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) were collected and tested. We found that while the overall activity of respiratory viruses was lower during the period with stringent NPIs, virus activity rebounded shortly after the NPIs were relaxed and social activities resumed. Only influenza was effectively suppressed with very low circulation which extended to the end of 2020. Circulation of other respiratory viruses in the community was maintained even during the period of stringent interventions, especially for rhinovirus. Our study shows that NPIs against COVID-19 have different impacts on respiratory viruses.

Quantifying the Effect of Public Activity Intervention Policies on COVID-19 Pandemic Containment Using Epidemiologic Data From 145 Countries.

OBJECTIVES: Most countries have adopted public activity intervention policies to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Nevertheless, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of different interventions on the containment of the epidemic was inconsistent. METHODS: We retrieved time-series intervention policy data for 145 countries from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker from December 31, 2019, to July 1, 2020, which included 8 containment and closure policies. We investigated the association of timeliness, stringency, and duration of intervention with cumulative infections per million population on July 1, 2020. We introduced a novel counterfactual estimator to estimate the effects of these interventions on COVID-19 time-varying reproduction number (Rt). RESULTS: There is some evidence that earlier implementation, longer durations, and more strictness of intervention policies at the early but not middle stage were associated with reduced infections of COVID-19. The counterfactual model proved to have controlled for unobserved time-varying confounders and established a valid causal relationship between policy intervention and Rt reduction. The average intervention effect revealed that all interventions significantly decrease Rt after their implementation. Rt decreased by 30% (22%-41%) in 25 to 32 days after policy intervention. Among the 8 interventions, school closing, workplace closing, and public events cancellation demonstrated the strongest and most consistent evidence of associations. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides more reliable evidence of the quantitative effects of policy interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic and suggested that stricter public activity interventions should be implemented at the early stage of the epidemic for improved containment.

Narrative review of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2: update on genomic characteristics, transmissions and animal model.

Two outbreaks of severe respiratory infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) caused global pandemics and highlighted the importance of preparedness for respiratory CoVs. Recently, a third highly pathogenic CoV, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first identified in Wuhan, Hubei, China and posed a public health crisis worldwide. Here, we focus on the recent advances of the novel CoV, and discuss its genomic similarity with other CoVs, transmission, animal model and clinical treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) induced by SARS-CoV-2, which help epidemic prevention and control, and guide treatment strategies.

Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak originating in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, coincided with chunyun, the period of mass migration for the annual Spring Festival. To contain its spread, China adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23 2020. These policies included large-scale quarantine, strict controls on travel and extensive monitoring of suspected cases. However, it is unknown whether these policies have had an impact on the epidemic. We sought to show how these control measures impacted the containment of the epidemic. METHODS: We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic. RESULTS: We found that the epidemic of China should peak by late February, showing gradual decline by end of April. A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in mid-March and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.